Current Developments in Monetary and Financial Law, Vol. 1

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Articles

  1. The Virtual Currency Regulation Review
  2. Financial Stability Review, May
  3. Current Developments in Monetary and Financial Law, Volume 2
  4. Current Developments in Monetary and Financial Law, Vol. 3

Accommodation City campuses Student life The London advantage. School of Law. School of Law School home. Research Financial law and regulation, central banking, international banking, international monetary law, law reform in emerging economies, law and economics, EU financial law, commercial law, banking law, sovereign debt, international economic law, bank resolution and insolvency and financial crisis management. How Relevant is a Rational Approach? Andenas and Y. Arner in D. Arner and J.

Alpa and F. Fletcher, M. Cremona and L. Shams , in E. Ferran and C. Invited to speak at the International Monetary Fund on Brexit and financial services on 24 October Invited to teach on Central Banking before and after the crisis at Georgetown University in October Contributed also to the panel on the role of central banks and international financial institutions in development finance.

The Virtual Currency Regulation Review

It convened an elite group of general counsels, lawyers, regulators, academics, practitioners, economists and policy experts. Interlinkages between policy uncertainty and sovereign debt sustainability concerns. A simple analysis of this interaction of fiscal, economic and political uncertainty explains the considerable variation in market perceptions of sovereign creditworthiness. An examination of the price of insurance against sovereign credit risk across 30 advanced economies offers two main takeaways.

First, the impact of political risk on credit default swap CDS spreads across all advanced economies examined was limited before the global financial crisis, but increased strongly in as market concerns about euro area sovereign indebtedness gained prominence. This finding may reflect market concerns about the incompleteness of the institutional framework of the monetary union in combination with the sustainability of public debt in some euro area economies.

Such concerns were particularly evident at the height of the euro area sovereign debt crisis in , when sovereign CDS markets put an additional premium on political uncertainty, as well as public debt, for euro area economies compared with other advanced economies. Euro area CDS markets have been sensitive to political uncertainty since the sovereign debt crisis. Notes: The chart shows the estimated impact of political uncertainty on CDS spreads for 30 advanced economies between and In particular, the chart in the left panel shows the increase in CDS spreads, in basis points, corresponding to a one-unit increase in the political risk index.

The model controls for the impact of economic fundamentals and the presence of outliers right panel. Political risk is a synthetic index from ICRG comprising variables such as political unrest and the presence of conflicts, government stability, the investment climate, corruption, the rule of law and the quality of bureaucracy. The original ICRG indices have been inverted so that an increase in the index indicates greater political or economic risk.

While political disagreement is a natural part of the democratic process, strong political fragmentation can lead to policy uncertainty. From a financial stability perspective, one potentially destabilising aspect of this uncertainty is the perception of debt sustainability for highly indebted sovereigns. Based on past experience, the sensitivity of sovereign risk premia to fundamentals in euro area economies could potentially increase in the case of a repricing of risk in global bond markets, thereby underscoring the need for consistent, clear and credible policies underpinning public finances.

Despite slowing towards the end of the year on account of losses on financial assets due to the correction in global stock markets, growth in household net worth remained solid throughout buttressed by valuation gains on property holdings amid sustained housing market momentum see Chart 1.


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Despite some deterioration over the course of , households remain confident about their financial situation and unemployment prospects, consistent with the relatively robust consumer confidence see Chart 1. Income risks for euro area households have remained contained so far, while household confidence and sentiment started to recover in early Notes: Left panel: the dashed horizontal lines represent the long-term averages, covering the period from Q2 to Q4 Middle panel: other flows in non-financial assets mainly include holding gains and losses on real estate including land.

Other flows in financial assets and liabilities mainly include holding gains and losses on shares and other equity, while changes in net worth due to net saving comprise net saving, net capital transfers received and the discrepancy between the non-financial and financial accounts. Right panel: unemployment prospects are presented using an inverted scale, i.

The dashed horizontal lines represent the long-term averages covering the period from January to March Household indebtedness has stabilised for the euro area as a whole, while remaining a cause for concern in some countries. This figure is also relatively low by international standards. In terms of changes, there has been continued balance sheet repair in both absolute and relative terms in some euro area countries that were more affected by the crisis, e.

Cyprus and Greece. Most other countries saw an increase in the absolute level of household debt over , but only a few countries have seen debt grow faster than nominal GDP see Chart 1.

While the interest payment burden remains low, elevated and rising household debt levels may represent a cause for concern in some euro area countries. Household debt-to-GDP ratios across the euro area left panel , interest income and expenditure of euro area households middle panel , as well as the share of new loans to households at a floating rate and with an interest rate fixation period of up to one year in total new loans right panel. Q4 , percentage of GDP, percentage point change in the debt-to-GDP ratio; middle panel: Q1 Q4 , four-quarter moving sums, percentage of gross disposable income; right panel: percentages.

Notes: Left panel: the size of the bubble indicates the country-specific debt service-to-income ratio. In the case of Ireland, GDP may not be the most representative scaling variable given the activities of foreign-owned multinational enterprises resident in the country.

Financial Stability Review, May

Right panel: loans to households comprise loans for house purchase, consumer lending and other lending. The pre-March period covers the three years before the last interest rate move by the Eurosystem i. Debt sustainability concerns are mitigated by the low level of interest rates. The low interest rate environment has encouraged a shift towards longer rate fixation periods across countries.

However, in the event of an interest rate shock without a commensurate boost to household income, more vulnerable households might be challenged going forward in countries where loans at floating rates or rates with rather short fixation periods predominate see Chart 1. Continued balance sheet repair in countries with elevated levels of household debt should help mitigate the risks related to an eventual normalisation of interest rates and the ensuing rise in debt servicing costs, which are relatively high in some countries see Chart 1.

Lending flows to households stabilised at moderate levels, but underlying dynamics vary across countries and according to the purpose of lending. Overall, lending to euro area households continues to be supported by borrowing costs close to historical lows see Chart 1. At the country level, lending growth remained lacklustre in some countries e.

Cyprus, Greece and Latvia , while in others, such as Slovakia, Malta and Lithuania, household credit expanded briskly. Looking at the different lending types, consumer credit remains the most dynamic component of loans to households, but its pace of expansion has decelerated as consumption of highly cyclical durables has slowed and supervisory scrutiny has increased.

Loans to households for house purchase continued to expand at a moderate pace. Going forward, banks expect weaker demand and tighter supply conditions for loans for house purchase than for consumer credit see Chart 1. Bank lending to euro area households is supported by lending rates close to historical lows, but demand and supply conditions have tightened more recently. Annual growth in household loans and MFI lending rates on new lending and outstanding loans to euro area households left panel , as well as credit standards and demand for household loans by type of credit right panel.

Current Developments in Monetary and Financial Law, Volume 2

Notes: Left panel: loans are adjusted for loan sales and securitisation. Right panel: credit demand indicates the net percentage of banks reporting a positive contribution to demand, while credit standards refer to the net percentage of banks contributing to a tightening of credit standards. A negative positive number for credit standards represents an easing tightening. So far, euro area households have been resilient to the slowdown in economic activity, but stock imbalances remain high in some countries.

At the same time, a sudden rise in interest rates may spark debt sustainability concerns in countries with elevated levels of household debt and a predominance of floating rate contracts. Cyclical headwinds indicate somewhat higher risks to corporate earnings and credit risks. Mirroring the weaker economic growth prospects, corporate sentiment deteriorated further in the euro area at the turn of While remaining well above long-term averages, corporate order books have become thinner, gradually translating into poorer capacity utilisation in manufacturing and lower corporate profits see Chart 1.

Heterogeneity across sectors of economic activity is considerable though. Some mainly export-oriented industries e. Alongside higher corporate earnings risks, market price-based measures, such as the expected default frequency and distance to distress, also signal a pick-up in credit risks for the euro area non-financial corporate NFC sector, but remain much less pronounced than at the height of the euro area sovereign debt crisis given more resilient corporate balance sheets and continued favourable financing conditions see Chart 1.

The operating environment has become more challenging for euro area NFCs, but market price-based measures continue to signal relatively low credit risk. Notes: Left panel: for scaling purposes, the raw time series for capacity utilisation in manufacturing has been divided by two. Right panel: the dashed horizontal lines illustrate the long-term averages covering the period from January to February Distance to distress is shown on an inverted scale.

Development Finance Institutions in a Changing Global Economy

Legacy balance sheet concerns continue to burden the euro area non-financial corporate sector. While being roughly on a par with that of international peers see Chart 1.

Current Developments in Monetary and Financial Law, Vol. 3

On a non-consolidated basis i. Heterogeneity at the country level remains considerable in terms of both the level of debt and its underlying dynamics, as renewed debt accumulation in some countries contrasts with continued deleveraging in countries which had built up large amounts of debt in the run-up to the global financial crisis, e.

Portugal and Spain see Chart 1. The same holds true for developments at the sector level, where overindebted sectors, such as construction and real estate services, continue to deleverage more strongly than less-indebted ones such as industry or trade see Chart 1. Corporate balance sheets remain vulnerable in some countries and sectors of economic activity. Consolidated NFC debt-to-GDP ratios in the euro area and selected advanced economies left panel , consolidated NFC debt across the euro area middle panel , as well as the ratio of MFI loans to gross value added across euro area sectors of economic activity right panel.

Notes: Left panel: consolidated non-financial corporate debt is defined as the sum of total loans granted to and debt securities issued by non-financial corporations net of inter-company loans. The consolidated NFC debt levels for Cyprus include the debt held by special-purpose entities.